Gold Price Hits $4,000 for First Time in History 🏆

Historic Moment: Gold Crosses $4,000 Threshold

The price of gold surpassed $4,000 on Tuesday, October 7 for the first time ever as the U.S. government entered its seventh day of a partial shutdown. This historic milestone represents a watershed moment for precious metals markets and validates Wall Street's bullish forecasts from earlier in 2025.

Gold futures were trading at $4,006 around 11 a.m. ET before slipping under the benchmark but quickly recovering. The commodity's remarkable 50% year-to-date gain represents one of the strongest performances in gold's modern trading history.

What's Driving Gold to Record Highs?

Multiple converging factors have created the perfect storm for gold's unprecedented rally:

1. Weakening US Dollar

Gold has continued to rise as the U.S. dollar weakens, with the dollar index down 10% year to date, according to CME Group data. The inverse relationship between gold and the dollar has been particularly pronounced in 2025.

2. Persistent Inflation Above Target

The current rate of inflation stands at 2.9%, which remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Investors are increasingly worried about the potential for inflation to erode the purchasing power of the dollar, driving them toward gold as a traditional inflation hedge.

3. Government Shutdown and Political Uncertainty

The ongoing partial government shutdown has amplified uncertainty in financial markets. Gold has historically thrived during times of political and economic uncertainty, and the current environment is no exception. Learn more about why gold is considered a safe-haven asset.

4. Central Bank Buying and Geopolitical Shifts

According to CNBC, banks and retail investors are buying gold at an increased pace. Significantly, countries including China are moving away from U.S. Treasurys after sanctions on Russia over its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, redirecting capital into gold reserves instead.

Retail Gold Rush: Costco and Walmart Sell Out

The surge in gold prices has sparked unprecedented retail demand, with Costco and Walmart gold bars continuing to fly off the shelves as investors seek to participate in the historic rally.

Costco's Gold Bar Phenomenon

Costco entered the gold-selling business in 2023, but 1-ounce gold bars quickly sold out after launch. The membership warehouse club has since struggled to keep up with demand as gold prices have steadily climbed.

• October 2023: Gold bars listed just under $2,000
• May 2025: Gold bars listed above $3,000
• September 2025: Gold bars found at $3,700, sold out next day
• October 7, 2025: Gold bars unavailable on Costco's site

Walmart Maintaining Some Inventory

While Costco's inventory remains depleted, some gold bars appear to be in stock on Walmart's site:

• 5-gram gold bar: $751
• 1-ounce Gold Bar PAMP Suisse Lady Fortuna Veriscan: $4,193

Historical Context: How We Got to $4,000

The journey to $4,000 has been marked by several key milestones:

Date	Price Level	Key Driver
Jan 2025	~$2,670	Year opening price
June 2025	$3,391	Wall Street targets $4,000
Sept 2025	$3,700	Retail surge accelerates
Oct 7, 2025	$4,006	Historic milestone reached

What Happens Next? Market Outlook

With gold breaking through the psychologically significant $4,000 level, market participants are divided on what comes next:

Bullish Case

• Continued dollar weakness could push gold higher
• Persistent inflation above Fed target supports safe-haven demand
• Central bank buying shows no signs of slowing
• Retail FOMO (fear of missing out) could drive additional buying
• Geopolitical tensions remain elevated

Potential Headwinds

• Profit-taking after 50% YTD gains
• Potential Fed policy changes if inflation moderates
• Rising real interest rates could pressure gold
• Resolution of government shutdown could reduce uncertainty premium

How to Invest in Gold at Current Levels

For investors looking to participate in gold's rally (or those reconsidering positions), several investment options exist:

Physical Gold

• Gold bars: Available from retailers (when in stock), dealers, and banks
• Gold coins: American Eagles, Canadian Maples, Krugerrands - read our guide to famous gold coins
• Considerations: Storage options, insurance, premiums over spot price

Gold ETFs

• SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): Largest gold ETF
• iShares Gold Trust (IAU): Lower expense ratio alternative
• Advantages: Liquidity, no storage concerns, easy trading - compare physical gold vs ETFs

Gold Mining Stocks

• Individual miners: Barrick Gold, Newmont, Franco-Nevada
• Mining ETFs: GDX (large cap), GDXJ (junior miners)
• Considerations: Operational leverage to gold prices, company-specific risks

Conclusion: A Historic Moment for Gold

The breakthrough above $4,000 represents more than just a price milestone—it validates gold's enduring role as a store of value and hedge against economic uncertainty. With the U.S. dollar weakening, inflation persisting above target, and global economic uncertainty remaining elevated, gold has delivered on its historical promise.

Whether this marks the beginning of a new leg higher or represents a peak after a remarkable 50% rally remains to be seen. What's certain is that October 7, 2025 will be remembered as the day gold crossed into uncharted territory, cementing its status as the ultimate safe-haven asset in turbulent times. Track the live gold price as this historic story continues to unfold.

For investors, the key question isn't whether gold has performed well—it clearly has. The question is whether current conditions support further gains or if caution is warranted after such a powerful move. As Ray Dalio suggested, maintaining a balanced allocation that includes gold may be the wisest path forward regardless of near-term price action. Read our comprehensive beginner's guide to gold investing for more portfolio strategies.